"Cheers President Trump, Welcome!" Says Putin
Trump is good for Putin. Really, really good! While there is not much Putin can do for Trump, there is a lot Trump can do for Putin. Most of Putin likely asks are easy gives and have no obvious near term costs or consequences for Trump. And none of them require pesky congressional approval.
Foremost on Putin wish list is recognition of Russia's annexation of Crimea. An easy give for Trump, especially since Crimea voted in a landslide to join Russia and that there is no realistic possibility that the annexation will ever be overturned. While the annexation violated International law and treaties, Trump is likely to view that as just a minor technicality. It is also a rare foreign policy issue where there is no strong domestic constituency. Only foreign policy elites or knowledgeable folks who worry about the domino consequences would oppose the move, but they are out of favour now, will not have a voice and Trump will successfully mock them.
Once the Crimean annexation is accepted, the rationale for sanctions against Russia will evaporate and they will be lifted by Europe and US. This will free up Putin to deal with Ukraine pretty much as it wants and ensure that Ukraine never joins the West or EU or NATO. More importantly he will be able to make sure that Ukraine remains a kleptocracy governed as in Russia by a corrupt oligarchy. His biggest fear always was that once Ukraine, so culturally akin to Russia, developed an open vibrant progressive Democracy, Russians would want that in their land. Now that will not happen. Other countries on Russia's periphery Georgia, Moldovia etc while remaining independent will fall in line and Putin's dream of Novorossiya will become a reality.
In the Middle East with Putin's help Assad is likely to remain in power and his other ally Iran is ascendant. The Shiite crescent from Lebanon to Syria to Iraq and then Iran will be firmly aligned with Putin and Trump is unlikely to do anything to disrupt it. These geopolitical wins will enhance Putin's popularity further at home surging above the current unimaginable 80%.
To be fair, on many fronts events were moving Putin's way before the US election. Assad was winning his battles while Obama was President and sanction support in Europe was cracking. Only strong, principled respected leadership by US could have maintained the sanctions againstRussia in 2017. Keeping Assad an international pariah and a war criminal would have also required a clear moral authoritative voice. Trump could not have succeeded on either front, even if he wanted to.
So, what can Putin do for Trump, even if he wanted to. Not much. Russia is primarily an extraction economy that sells oil, gas and minerals. We can and freely buy those commodities at world prices. Trump may ask that Russia stop selling air defense systems to Iran and withdraw the ones they have already deployed. Then Trump and Netanyahu can bomb Iran with abandon. Putin is unlikely to seriously entertain that request.
So, while Putin's geo-political successes will make Russians feel like 'winners' and good about themselves, will Trump be good for Russia. The answer is an emphatic NO. Russian economy is entirely dependent fossil fuel and mineral extraction. Trump policies that will hurt Russia include expanding domestic oil gas and coal production by opening federal lands, easing environmental regulations. Russia desperately needs price of oil to rise but expanding US production will lower oil prices worldwide.
More importantly Russia needs to move from an extraction based economy to one where they make things or create or innovate. That shift will not happen until there is improved governance, a rule of law and Russia moves from its kleptocratic, corrupt, Oligarchy form of government. However, given Putin's Geo-Political successes and high approval ratings there will be no internal push for governance change. The ruble will continue to devalue, Russia keep falling further behind in standard of living and quality of life (one statistic one of the few nations in the world where the average age is declining) This is not sustainable and unlike a Democracy there is no steam valve to release the pressure by electing a new set of leaders. So, in a typical Russian way, one day there will be an explosion (or Revolution) and the Oligarchs marched to the gallows and there will be new leaders.
But then it will be said that we enabled and supported the corruption of the Putin era and that will be bad for the US.
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